A. Kubilius: everyone in Brussels has learnt one phrase – the world will be different after the war

2022 m. balandžio 1 d. 18:44
Lrytas.lt
As Lithuania's political parties begin to work on a common national agreement on foreign policy, MEP Andrius Kubilius argues that the country's main strategy should be the expansion of the democratic space to the eastern side of the European continent.
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For his part, Social Democrat Gintautas Paluckas notes that Lithuania's dependence on various external security guarantees, especially from the US, is increasing.
Will it change everything?
MEP Andrius Kubilius told Žinių Radio that the Seimas had chosen the right time to sign a national agreement on foreign policy because Putin's war against Ukraine is changing almost everything.
"The drafting of the agreement itself is a good opportunity to rethink, forecast, strategise, what might change, what should be expected, and what Lithuania should try to do in the future," said Mr Kubilius.
According to him, the main goal of foreign policy is to ensure that Lithuania's geopolitical security is strengthened and not threatened. The main threats, he said, are authoritarian regimes in Lithuania's vicinity, and foreign policy measures should be chosen according to these threats.
Kubilius would call Lithuania's long-term foreign policy strategy the expansion of the democratic space to the eastern side of the European continent.
"Everyone in Brussels has learned to use the phrase that the world will be different after the war. The European Union will also change. It will become much more geopolitical, Ukraine will change - it will probably become much closer to the European Union. Russia may also change.
If Putin loses this war painfully, as we wish him to do, it may indeed be the case that Russia will be without Putin. What kind of Russia it will be then is open to debate," the MEP said.
"Let's imagine a situation where Russia becomes democratic. Our security architecture changes fundamentally. We become much more secure because democracies do not normally fight each other. Imagine what the European continent would look like with a democratic Russia on the eastern side of the European continent.
That is our long-term ambition, but it has to be approached tactfully and in an orderly manner. We need to strengthen Ukraine, which can be a good example for the same Belarusians or ordinary Russians to follow. And to strengthen it, we will need to take care of reconstruction, the rules for faster integration", said Mr Kubilius.
He said that even while maintaining the same foreign policy orientations, Lithuania could rethink many of the tasks it will do in the longer term.
"I believe that after this global upheaval caused by Putin's war against Ukraine, it is possible that China's approach to global trends may also change. It may get worse, but it may also start to get better as China starts to understand what lies ahead for authoritarian regimes, taking a cue from Putin's failures", Kubilius added.
Dependence on other countries
At the same time, Social Democrat Gintautas Paluckas said that Lithuania's dependence on various external security guarantees is growing. The national agreement will raise questions on how to reduce this dependence.
"Yes, our transatlantic cooperation with the US is indisputable, but our dependence on the US has grown and grown even more - our sovereignty in the broadest sense has been diminished because of this change in context.
I would certainly like to counterbalance this with a stronger role for the EU - so that we do not put all our security eggs in one basket because the world is a motley and complex place, and it is important to anticipate the various developments," said Paluckas.
The Social Democrat is convinced that Lithuania should fight for its strategic autonomy and strength without abandoning its transatlantic ties.
For his part, Kubilius said that we need to see our principled interests and the countries that can best help us achieve them.
"We have to see our principal interest, which is a secure neighbourhood to our east. To whom can we achieve it? Yes, the European Union is very important, and it would be good for the EU to start talking not about strategic autonomy but about strategic responsibility for its neighbourhood. Still, equally important for us is the presence of the US here because it is the leader of the democratic world," Kubilius said.

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