„A few weeks ago, I wrote that the referendum was the key issue. If Greenland declares independence, which Denmark is committed to recognising, the security interest of the US (and NATO) in preserving the territory's strategic dependence on the West becomes unquestionable.
The problem is that the conversations between the US and Denmark are getting sharper. The rhetoric that is quoted in private conversations does not resemble allied diplomacy. There is even talk of targeted incentives for the referendum, which are clearly at odds with Danish interests.
The anger of the Greenlandic population at the policies once pursued by Denmark, including forced contraception, should not be forgotten. So, there is no shortage of „sharp corners“,“ Kojala stressed on his Facebook account.
The political analyst also recalled a recent opinion poll of Greenlanders, which showed that 85% would not want to become part of the US if Greenland separated from Denmark.
„Only 6% would want to do so. Since a complete secession seems impractical even for the promoters of the referendum – with half of Greenland's budget coming from Danish subsidies, with 57,000 locals not having the capacity to defend a territory 33 times larger than Lithuania's, and with the ambitions of Russia and China to expand their influence in such a case dramatically increasing – the situation is highly complicated.
And then there is the fact that Denmark is one of the closest US allies. The country's defence budget passed the 2.3% of GDP mark last year. Danish casualties in Afghanistan are the highest among NATO countries in terms of population. There is already a US military base in Greenland, and it would be hard to imagine Copenhagen opposing the expansion. And, of course, Greenland is already covered by the NATO security umbrella, which limits the scope for expansion of the influence of hostile countries,“ said Kojala.
„This kind of pressure on allies is a hazardous strategy“, he added.
Lithuania will not take sides
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys also reacted to Trump's claims on Greenland on Wednesday, stating that Lithuania is not siding with either Washington or Denmark in this debate.
„Lithuania does not choose either side. Lithuania says that we are all allies, bound by long-standing cooperation and firm commitments. And it is in this spirit that we deal with all the issues that arise between us. After all, even the Washington Treaty – the first article of the NATO treaty – commits us to this. We cannot distance ourselves from that“, Budrys said.
„We hope all such needs will be resolved in the spirit of allies and international law. And certainly, we will not have to answer your question about our choice one day. We are not really in that situation“, he added.
Budrys noted that Trump's focus on Arctic security is understandable, given the shipping opportunities, Russia's investment in military bases in the Arctic, and China's interest in expanding northward.
US President Trump has stated that under Danish control, Greenland should belong to the US. Mr Trump argued that the US „will get Greenland“ because it is about freedom in the world, and the US is the only power that can guarantee that freedom.
Mr Trump did not rule out the US using military force or economic means to annex Greenland. The US currently has a military base in the north of the island.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen visited Berlin, Paris, and Brussels on Tuesday to seek the support of European leaders for Copenhagen. In mid-January, she spoke to Mr Trump on the phone and stressed that Greenland must decide its own future.
Greenland, the world's largest non-continental island, is essentially autonomous and subject to the Danish Crown. Denmark manages the island's defence and foreign affairs. Greenland occupies an important geopolitical position in the Arctic and is believed to contain vital minerals.
