Political analysts also raise many questions about the future economic relationship between the US and China. The sustainability of the Euro-Atlantic relationship has also been the subject of much debate during Trump's previous term in office and since the Republican candidate's return to power.
The US position in the Russia-Ukraine war is difficult to predict
Experts say it is difficult to predict where the US will stand in the war until the composition of the new presidential cabinet is clear. According to Linas Kojala, Director of the East European Studies Centre (RESC), Trump may try to implement his promises to end the war as soon as possible in various ways that will not necessarily benefit Ukraine or NATO's eastern flank.
„The Ukrainians themselves seem to feel that there may be some good things – perhaps some of the restrictions that existed during the Biden administration, namely on the use of long-range missiles to target targets deep inside Russia, may no longer be in place, but it may also mean a willingness to bring the two sides to the negotiating table, threatening same Ukraine with less or no support, and hoping that Ukraine will somehow agree with Russia, even if this agreement will not be beneficial for Ukraine and will be detrimental to the whole NATO's eastern wing and its security,“ he told Elta. Kojala.
Dovilė Jakniūnaitė, a political scientist and professor at Vilnius University (VU) TSPMI, echoed him. According to her, Ukraine is likely to be urged to come to the negotiating table by various means, which will impact the security situation of Europe as a whole.
„The position towards Ukraine is likely to change dramatically. There will probably be a decrease in funding, perhaps an increase in pressure for negotiations, so in that sense, we will feel indirect, but we will feel the changing security situation around us,“ the professor said.
Trump's return to power is a threat to NATO's sustainability
However, this is not the only concern, she said. It is worth noting that Trump's rhetoric has long emphasised that NATO members should increase their share of defence spending and rely less on support from the United States. While many are worried about what NATO's future will look like when the Republican candidate is back in power, Jakniūnaitė believes that there is a good reason for such concerns.
„Trump's scepticism towards NATO is well-known, and it is hard to say what rhetorical and then concrete measures he will take, such as pressuring countries on budget increases. It is difficult to predict, but this risk certainly remains as to how sustainable NATO as an alliance will be“, the political analyst said.
China's promised tariffs could hurt the EU economy as a whole
The escalation of US-China relations has already been observed during Trump's last term as Head of State. Moreover, throughout the election campaign, the President-elect spoke extensively about the tariffs he would impose on products coming from China. In the opinion of the political analyst, Mr Kojala, competition between the countries and tariffs of up to 60% will negatively impact relations between the States and China and the economic environment of the whole of Europe.
„Already in his first term, Trump has imposed tariffs on some Chinese imports. (...) If this policy were to be extended, it would also complicate China-US relations considerably and probably negatively affect the global economy. Tariffs are restrictions, and restrictions, especially for countries like many European Union countries, Lithuania, which depends on international trade, could have negative consequences, even if it does not concern us directly,“ said Kojala, a lecturer at the VU TSPMI.
According to Ramūnas Vilpišauskas, a professor at Vilnius University, the only clear thing is that the US relations with other countries are still challenging to predict. However, he admits that tariffs imposed not only on Chinese goods but also on EU goods could significantly impact the EU's economic development.
„For the time being, one can only predict greater unpredictability in the world and especially in American foreign policy after he becomes president in January,“ said Mr Vilpišauskas.
„He is indeed going to impose import duties on all goods, not only from China but also from the European Union. This could also hurt the economic development of the whole European Union, including Lithuania,“ he added.
Jakniūnaitė also agreed with this position. She stressed that Gintautas Paluckas, who is running for Prime Minister, should also consider such a scenario.
„China is quite clearly perceived as a strategic competitor. There is a perception that we will still have to think about containing it. The only question in this case will be what rhetoric will be chosen. And in this sense, Lithuanian foreign policymakers, despite the declarations of the incoming Prime Minister that it is worth strengthening and improving relations with China, should probably adapt or listen to the signals from Washington a bit more,“ the political scientist said.
ELTA recalls that former US President Donald Trump, a Republican, has secured victory in the leadership election and will return to the White House.
