She said that although the Social Democrats continue to have a convincing lead in the latest publicly available ratings, politicians' behaviour in recent weeks may have had a decisive influence on the results.
According to polls by Baltic Research for Elta on 6–20 September, the Social Democrats, led by Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, can still expect the most excellent support from the population. The party, considered the favourite for the Seimas elections, was supported by 20.1% of the population in September. A few days before the primary election day, the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, ranked second. According to the latest polls, 15.1% of citizens support the party, which currently has the largest group in the Seimas.
The Democratic Union Vardan Lietuvos (In the Name of Lithuania) is third in the rating table. The political force represented by Saulius Skvernelis, which is in opposition, is supported by 12.5% of respondents.
For its part, the recently in the spotlight Nemuno Aušra (Dawn of Nemunas) is in fourth place. The party of Remigijus Žemaitaitis, a former MP accused of anti-Semitism, is currently supported by 10.5% of voters.
The Peasants, chaired by Ramūnas Karbauskis, have an almost identical result. 10.3% of respondents support the party, which does not hide its aspirations to form a new ruling majority.
The Liberal Movement, led by Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, is following in the ranking table. On the eve of the elections, 5.1% of the population supports this party. The Party of the Regions of Lithuania has around five per cent support – 4.8%. The party led by Jonas and Živilė Pinskai is currently seventh in the ranking table.
The Freedom Party, which belongs to the ruling majority and proclaimed during the election campaign that it had „unfinished business“, goes into the parliamentary elections with a popularity of 2.7%. It is followed by the Lithuanian Green Party, which has an equally progressive agenda. The political force chaired by Ieva Budraitė is supported by 1.8% of voters. The Peace Coalition, led by Viktor Uspaskich, has the same result (1.8%).
The remaining political parties, on the other hand, boast popularity levels of around 1%, with Waldemar Tomaszewski's Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Union of Christian Families supported by 1.5% of the population, Vytautas Sinica's list of the National Union of Poles (Narodinis združienijimo Narodinis – National Unification List) by 1.4%, and Artūras Orlauskas's Union of People and Justice (Centrists, Nationalists) by 1.2%. Artūras Zuokas' Freedom and Justice party receives 1.1% of the population—the Lithuanian People's Party list, led by Eduardas Vaitkus, rounds off the rankings. According to the latest polls, the list, which has been criticised for spreading pro-Russian narratives, receives 0.7% support.
However, 9.4% of respondents indicated they had not decided who to vote for.
The table of party rankings shows the answers of respondents who are more likely and certain to vote in the Seimas elections.
The survey took place between 6 and 20 September 2024. It consists of 1004 respondents (aged 18 and over) interviewed in person at 110 sampling points. The composition of the respondents corresponds to the composition of the Lithuanian population aged 18 years and over in terms of gender, age, nationality, and type of settlement. The people surveyed reflect the opinion of the Lithuanian population aged 18 and over. The margin of error of the survey results is up to 3.1%.
Social Democrats will not necessarily celebrate victory after the first round of elections.
Rasa Ališauskienė, Director of Baltic Research, says that the latest party ratings suggest that the contours of the formation of the new government are unlikely to emerge after the first round of elections on Sunday. She said the result of the first two parties to share the vote in a multi-member constituency could be very similar. On the other hand, the sociologist points out, it should not be ruled out that the Conservatives, who are behind the Social Democrats in the rankings, will also be the ones to break out the champagne after the first round.
„In any case, the second round will be significant. Half of the Seimas elections are held in single-mandate constituencies. Moreover, it should not be ruled out that the Conservatives may show a better result than the current polls. Although the Social Democrats' rating looks better, their electorate is more difficult to mobilise. We could have a similar result for the Conservatives and the Social Democrats“, Ališauskienė told Elta.
For her part, the sociologist is cautious about the possibility that Nemuno Aušra, which has recently caused a resonance in the public sphere, will triumph after the first round of elections. According to her, such a scenario is unlikely.
„In the big cities, Nemuno Aušra (Dawn of Nemunas) looks worse than in the rest of Lithuania. And yet, the situation in Vilnius and Kaunas has a lot of influence. It is the same with the Social Democrats. They look worse in the cities than in the district municipalities“, said the director of Baltic Research.
„So, I don't see the possibility that Nemuno Aušra will come first. But they could be in the top three,“ she added.
The decisive factor is still difficult to assess
According to Ališauskienė, the significant factor in Sunday's elections will not be the weather but the politicians' performance in recent weeks. These actions have not been „caught“ by any publicly available sociological poll.
„The election campaign has only now got underway. So, the impact of debates, advertising and politicians walking the walk has not yet been fully felt in the polls. This is particularly important when it comes to voter mobilisation“, said the sociologist.
And getting even party sympathisers off the sofa can be a challenge. This, Ališauskienė points out, is especially true for centre-left forces. The Social Democrats and Vardan Lietuvos (In the Name of Lithuania) are among the first to be mentioned.
„For example, a voter of Vardan Lietuvos may at the last moment defect to the Social Democrats. A Social Democrat voter can do the same,“ she said.
In this respect, Ališauskienė argued, a voter of the Conservatives and Nemuno Aušra behaves differently. She noted that the electorate of either political party is unlikely to change its opinion on election day.
„In terms of loyalty, the electorate of Nemuno Aušra is more likely to say that they will not change their opinion,“ said Ališauskienė, adding that the talk in the public space for several months about Žemaitaitis’s anti-Semitism did not deter the voter of Nemuno Aušra.
Therefore, according to the sociologist, the Conservatives' talk about the radical threat, which sparked the debate, was most helpful in mobilising the electorate of the Homeland Union.
„Talking about threats has an impact on the Conservative voter. The sociologist concluded that it mobilises them even more to come out to vote so that the bad guys don't come“.
ELTA reminds us that the Seimas elections will take place on 13 October.
