However, he said, the number and direction of illegal border crossings is in the hands of the Lukashenko regime.
„All the time in autumn, from September to October, migration flows increase; this is the general trend. In winter, as our experience shows, these flows decrease because of the weather conditions, and it is more difficult for migrants to enter Lithuania. So now we would predict an increase,“ Lyubayev told Elta.
„Flows can increase at any time, but the European practice is that flows increase at the end of the summer and in the first days of autumn. Both the organisers and the migrants themselves want to take the opportunity to enter the European Union (EU) while the weather conditions are still reasonably safe,“ he stressed.
However, the head of the VSAT said that such predictions might not come true, as he said that the Kremlin and Lukashenko regimes control the migrant flows.
„It is tough to say and predict because the Lukashenko regime artificially organises the hybrid attack. At any moment, these flows could be diverted to our country, and then we will have migrants on our border with Belarus. So, it is tough to say 100% what the situation is in October. It will all depend on the political situation and the willingness of the Lukashenko Kremlin regimes to „punish“ one or another EU country in our region“, he said.
Strengthening the border protection with Russia is a priority for the VSAT.
Since the announcement in April of the intention to strengthen Lithuania's border with Russia, Mr Lyubayev believes that this task is one of the VSAT's priorities. He says some border surveillance systems have already been upgraded along this stretch.
„Strengthening the protection of Lithuania's border with Russia is a priority of our activities this year. We have already done a lot of work; we have deployed additional forces to protect the border, the border surveillance systems will be upgraded, and the infrastructure will be built on the border. We are working with the army on counter-mobility measures and fortification. In the overall political context, although we are not recording any major violations there, the border is one of our priorities,“ the Head of the VSAT stressed.
ELTA recalls that the recent increase in the number of migrants attempting to cross the border illegally in Latvia has led to a renewed surge in the number of migrants assisted by Lithuanian and Estonian border guards in the neighbouring country.
This year, Latvia has recorded almost 3,500 irregular migrants. At the same time, Lithuania has been prevented from entering Belarus just over 350 times in the first six months of this year.
