The Social Democratic Council on Saturday did not provide the long-awaited answer – the party promises to decide on participation in the presidential elections only at the beginning of February of next year, while V. Blinkevičiūtė herself is treading on the spot, apparently avoiding entering the presidential ring.
Matas Baltrukevičius, an analyst at the Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis, is convinced that V. Blinkevičiūtė would become a serious opponent to the three most prominent candidates. According to the latest Vilmorus ratings, she is currently viewed favourably by every second person in the country. Only G. Nausėda is ahead of V. Blinkevičiūtė.
„I would not entirely agree that we have a triangle because V. Blinkevičiūtė could easily turn that triangle into a quadrilateral. Then the President would have to look for some other accents to scare the voters about V. Blinkevičiūtė,“ M. Baltrukevičius said in the programme Dienos Klausimas (Question of the Day) on Žinių Radijas.
Although they promised to decide on participation in the elections in December, the Social Democrats have changed their strategy. They are now saying it will be taken on 3 February. The Social Democrats do not disclose the reasons for the change of dates but explain that they want to maintain the intrigue.
The analyst believes this is related to the allegations made by law enforcement against the Mayor of Jonava, Mindaugas Sinkevičius, which led to his suspension from the party.
„ „I think that such a situation is not only from a good life.“. Before the cheque scandal, V. Blinkevičiūtė said he could be a candidate for Prime Minister. If he is a candidate for Prime Minister, the political alternatives for V. Blinkevičiūtė are significantly reduced; she only needs to decide whether she stays in the European Parliament, runs for President or both“, – he said.
„Realistically, the Social Democrats are going through a personality shortage right now, and it is tough for Ms Blinkevičiūtė because she is unlikely to be able to be the leader in all three elections, and then she has to make difficult choices,“ stressed Mr Baltrukevičius.
He said that the Social Democrats should now concentrate most on the Seimas elections, as their party's rating has shot up firmly, and their chances of success in these elections are most realistic.
For his part, communications expert Linas Kontrimas is surprised by how Blinkevičiūtė treads on the spot. He pointed out that the Social Democrats had created a throne for their leader and a crown and that she now needed to take responsibility.
„Unfortunately, my wish for this party is that you stop this nonsense and finally stand where you should be as one of the most serious parties on the left. And indeed, Lithuania desperately needs it. We can see that when the left has gone mad, people are coming together, whoever they want, whatever actors they want, are coming in“, Kontrimas criticised.
M.Baltrukevičius considered that if V. Blinkevičiūtė agrees to stand as a candidate, it will be a sacrifice for the party, not a personal ambition.
„I would not rule out that option (she will run). Although Blinkevičiūtė is not very eager now, the party leaders are trying to mitigate the situation. Duchnevičius recently said that it is not that V. Blinkevičiūtė does not want to be here anymore; she is just intensively considering it.
We can see that there are attempts to smooth over the situation, and it is possible that she will still choose to sacrifice herself for the sake of the party“, – noted the analyst.
What lies ahead in the so-called triangle?
Speaking about the three most prominent candidates at the moment – Nausėda, Šimonytė and Vėgėlė – who are already lined up at the starting line, Kontrimas said that he could least imagine a female prime minister in the presidential position.
„Of the three, we have a politician who, with her arrogance and sometimes even champish rhetoric, dares to insult any partner and make them back down. I have no idea how such a person is supposed to show backbone. It might be better to show a certain face that perhaps we do not need to show anymore,“ he stated.
Mindaugas Lapinskas, a communications expert, has a different opinion.
„This arrogance is a myth created by political technologists and opponents. When Landsbergis was the head of the Supreme Council, we can also attach the label of arrogance. Still, in principle, it is probably time that in foreign policy, it is more important to follow your defined path, not to stand still and wait for what the voters will tell you,“ the expert said.
„If you call your leader arrogant because he is charting a course – let’s, call it arrogance. The question is, how best to do the job and who will do it best? I think the biggest work that needs to be done in Lithuania is in international relations and ensuring our security“, he added.
Both communication experts criticised the current leader of the country, who, for five years, has not even understood what the welfare state is.
„We have one candidate who started his term in office without defining what a welfare state is. Just as we heard in his speeches, it was not clear what the welfare state is. In a word, it was said that it is about reducing exclusion. What is the speech about?“ – Kontrimas asked.
According to him, Nausėda's half-hour speech said almost nothing about foreign policy but spoke about the issues that are not up to him but to the Government.
Mr Lapinskas stressed that the five tectonic fractures discussed by the President show that he needs a clear direction and message with which he intends to seek re-election.
„He is throwing a lot of things at the wall and hoping that one of them will stick“, he said.
According to experts, the President's feathers should be well ruffled by the other competitors in the presidential debate. They pointed out that Nausėda did not mention the situation in the courts at all in his speech, and both Dainius Žalimas, nominated by the Freedom Party and I. Vėgėlė will have something to say to him here.
According to Lapinskas, it is already evident from the posts on Facebook that Prime Minister Šimonytė will not give her government achievements to Nausėda either.
„These few front lines may cause trouble for the President, and, you know, when an earthquake happens, it is difficult to say which house will stand and whose ratings will stand,“ he stated.
Presidential elections will be held in May next year.
