Although experts point out that Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė has the best chance of challenging incumbent Gitanas Nausėda, who is likely to seek re-election, an open primary election for the TS-LKD presidential candidate could bring some surprises.
Candidates are running
The conservatives have already started preparations for the presidential elections. As Martynas Prievelis, executive secretary of the TS-LKD, told lrytas.lt, meetings of the party's chapters from 14 August to 24 September will be proposing candidates that the party could support in the presidential elections.
The Presidium of the TS-LKD Party also has the right to propose candidates.
The elections to choose the candidate supported by the party are scheduled for 11-12 November. If none of the candidates wins more than half of the votes, a second round is scheduled for a week later, on 18-19 November.
Candidates can be members of the TS-LKD as well as non-party members. It is stressed that the party's open primaries will be open to those who meet the relevant legal provisions and are of good repute.
TS-LKD leader Gabrielius Landsbergis does not rule out the possibility that the chapters may also put forward his candidacy, but he does not disclose whether he would agree to contest the election of the country's leader.
Although the Minister of National Defence Arvydas Anušauskas is the most popular candidate in the ratings, second only to G. Nausėda, it is doubtful whether the party leadership would agree to run his candidacy, as Anušauskas does not have the confidence of TS-LKD leaders.
Monika Navickienė, the Minister of Social Security and Labour, is also regularly mentioned as a possible candidate, but there is talk behind the scenes that she herself is not keen to run for the post.
It seems that, just like five years ago, the conservatives themselves would most like to see Prime Minister Šimonytė as a candidate for the presidency.
Although the Prime Minister does not answer the question of whether she would agree to run for the presidency again, she has hinted that her decision is not yet a "no".
In the open primaries for the presidential candidate, in addition to TS-LKD members, Lithuanian citizens who do not belong to any other political party or other electoral formation opposing TS-LKD in the Parliament will be eligible to vote.
Who will enjoy the greatest success?
"Rimvydas Paleckis, a TV presenter at Lietuvos rytas, agrees with political commentators and political analysts who say that Šimonytė has the best chance of winning the TS-LKD primary and becoming the party's supported presidential candidate.
"The polls clearly show this, but the general mood also suggests that she has the best chance. When asked recently, she did not deny that she will run. Anušauskas did not deny it either. Any answer - "when the time comes", "there is no desire to talk about it now" - shows that politicians are preparing for the elections," Paleckis said on Žinių Radijas programme Įvykiai ir komentarai (Events and Comments).
He said that of all the other members of the TS-LKD party, Šimonytė would probably have the best chance of challenging Nausėda at the national level.
"I.Šimonytė has the best chance to challenge Nausėda. Again, there are rumours that Anušauskas may resist, but first, he would have to learn how to communicate with the media and then seek such a position," said the Lietuvos rytas TV programme host.
According to Paleckis, the party leader G.Landsbergis should get the support of the chapters, but his chances of actually competing seriously for the presidency are slim.
"Of course, an interesting factor is G.Landsbergis, who has also spoken publicly in the past and has not denied the possibility of running. It is likely that he will have a lot of support in the party. I have no doubt that Landsbergis will have a lot of support from the chapters, but the question is whether he will agree to take part," the journalist said.
"On a national level, there are probably few who would bet on him winning the elections. Let's remember the polls, and he is one of the most unfavourably regarded politicians. He added here, too, one probably needs to think soberly".
The verdict of the party's Christian Democratic wing could also become a very important factor in the internal election of the TS-LKD candidate. Paleckis pointed out that the Christian Democrats should unite around one candidate from their own circle, as this way, the candidate would get more votes.
In the Krikdem wing of the party, the Lietuvos rytas TV presenter predicted that the biggest success would go to the chairman of the Seimas Committee on National Security and Defence (NSGK), Laurynas Kasčiūnas.
"As far as I can sense from informal conversations, I would not rule out that Kasčiūnas may have such ambitions, at least to raise his authority and rating," he noted.
Paleckis urged not to write off the factor of other possible candidates, such as Social Security and Labour Minister Monika Navickė.
"There may be dark horses here. I would not rule out", the journalist said.
He is looking forward to a more heated debate
Saulius Jakučionis, editor-in-chief of the BNS news agency, also singled out Kasčiūnas, whose participation in the party's internal presidential elections, i.e. in the debates between the candidates, could bring more intrigue and spicier discussions.
As S.Jakučionis notes, TS-LKD members unanimously agree on many issues, such as national defence and foreign policy, but it is the representative of the Christian Democrats who could make the debates uninteresting, especially when discussing human rights issues, on which there is a greater difference of opinion within the party.
"If Kasčiūnas actually takes part in these primaries, then the walls could really shake more than if he does not take part," the BNS editor-in-chief said.
He pointed out that it is generally difficult to predict how realistic these internal party elections will be.
"I think it will eventually become clear once we know what the list of candidates put forward by the branches is. You and Rimvydas have touched on the candidates who should probably be the most competitive both in the internal party elections and probably nationally. We shall see.
I think there is certainly room for a heated debate within the TS-LKD when choosing a presidential candidate," Jakučionis told Žinių radijas.
However, he does not see much intrigue in the future presidential elections in the case of Nausėda's participation in them:
"How many people in the TS-LKD are there who could oppose Nausėda in the upcoming elections? Many would say none. Even the same I.Šimonytė, as we know, took part in the 2019 presidential elections and fought against Nausėda in the second round.
Many analysts believe that not much has changed since then, Šimonytė could get more votes and Nausėda fewer votes if they are in the second round again."
