After the unsuccessful municipal elections for the Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD), the name of the country's head of diplomacy, Gabriel Landsbergis, has been heard more and more frequently, while the head of the leader of the Freedom Party, the Minister for Economy and Innovation, Aušrinė Armonaitė, has been asked for because of the nepotism scandal.
Whether these leaders should retreat and what will be the outcome of the political passions were discussed by a conservative, former member of the Seimas Julius Dautartas, deputy chairman of the Social Democrats Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, political analyst Liutauras Gudžinskas and journalist and blogger Skirmantas Malinauskas in the „Opponents“ programme on „Lietuvos rytas“ TV.
Sees internal tensions
According to Dautartas, although there have been a lot of talks lately about Landsbergis' personal responsibility for the unsuccessful municipal elections, the Conservative Party is currently dealing with much more complicated issues than the impeachment of its chairman.
In his opinion, Landsbergis himself does not need to step down today, but another conservative, Andrius Vyšniauskas, the party's chief of staff, should think about it very seriously after the municipal elections.
„He should definitely retreat. We always take the attitude that we won the elections, and now there is a position that we didn't lose them, that we won Vilnius. This is a huge mistake. This is a deception. If we take Vilnius, it is only Vilnius: Vilnius and the rest of Lithuania.
When we treat Vilnius as having been won and as a good election result, that is quite a serious error in the internal party logic system. The reasons are deep, and they lie in the internal structure and problems of the party,“ Dautartas said.
For his part, L.Gudžinskas, a social democrat and political scientist, said that the TS-LKD party has never been homogeneous, so it should be particularly interesting to see who will eventually take Landsbergis' place after the chairmanship election.
„For a long time, we have seen at least two or even three currents: there is the liberal, conservative group – Kubilius, Landsbergis, Šimonytė – which dominates the party, but there is also the so-called Christian Democratic line, which feels that it has been marginalised a bit more and is now perhaps sharpening its knives a bit.
For example, Kasčiūnas is apparently very angry that he, who has such a high rating in the whole of Lithuania, does not have a ministerial post, and so is Paulius Saudargas. Since this is a time when Vilnius has got a (mayor) and the district conservatives have been hit very hard, there may be an opportunity to raise these issues.
It remains to be seen – one way or another, the election of the chairman will show, but it will probably be serious, just like it was once when A.Kubilius was competing with I.Degutiene“, – compared L.Gudžinskas.
Malinauskas also said that the Conservative Party is already showing some tensions with the naked eye.
„The question is to what extent G.Landsbergis has not withdrawn now. In my eyes, the strategic communication decision to hide the party chairman has been made. Unless we hear comments from Brussels or as foreign ministers, Landsbergis makes very few comments on party issues.
The second question is who could replace him. As far as I am aware of the situation, there is a great deal of tension internally. It is good that there are many opinions and many ambitions within the party, but we are already seeing some things coming out into the public sphere, with the leaders criticising each other very actively.
It is no secret that Šimonytė, as a possible future President of the Conservatives, has the support not even of the liberal side, I would say, but more of the left side – because what is happening at the moment reminds me of left-wing politics – and there is a classical conservative right, such as Kasčiūnas, Saudargas, Ažubalis and the others.
It is difficult to say who will take that place and how it will be reacted to,“ said Malinauskas.
Discussing Nausėda's role in the nepotism scandal
According to the journalist, it may seem to many that resigning from a certain post is a huge punishment for a politician, but often the opposite is true – according to Malinauskas, it is a very smart manoeuvre because the leader who leaves takes with him all the negative load.
„When a new leader comes in, they have a credit of trust, and there could be a whole discussion about political technology, whether it is worth taking a position. But I always say that if you want to replace a leader, you have to think about what you can replace him with.
If we look at the Freedom Party, it is clear that the real leader there was Remigijus Šimašius until his ratings and credibility fell. In Vilnius, as predicted, the results are poor.
Mrs Armonaitė has also absorbed a huge negative load, so, frankly, who could come in there now and pull the same thing out? I do not know. I think this is a different situation from the Conservatives“, the blogger assessed.
Although not only the Deputy Minister of Economy and Innovation V.Jurgutis resigned after the nepotism scandal, but also his wife, A. Belickaitė, who was at the centre of the scandal, President Nausėda demanded the head of the minister herself, A.Armonaitė.
According to Malinauskas, this tactic of the Head of State was not chosen by chance.
„We can look at the situation in two ways. One thing is the situation of conflict of interests, but as far as Nausėda is concerned, he has very purposefully chosen an unpopular minister, a party chairwoman, who seems to be completely at odds with his electorate.
In fact, it is probably not even that the size of the violation was so big, but the tension between the minister and the president will inevitably remain“, he said.
However, according to the journalist and blogger, there is another question – how far Nausėda wants to „push“ this situation.
„He has bitter experience with ministers who don't back down. Remember Narkevičius – when the president has demanded his resignation many times, and it hasn't happened, it cuts through his reputation, and, of course, there is always talk about whether there is nepotism, which is not good for him.
I think he took as much as he could from the communication side, and in the public sphere, his tough stance has remained, but it is hardly worth pressing him even harder because he may get burnt himself“, Malinauskas said.
According to political analyst and social democrat L.Gudžinskas, the scandal of possible nepotism will hit the Freedom Party very hard – maybe even harder than the bills that have failed to succeed in the Seimas.
„Maybe even more than the failure of the Partnership Law or the decriminalisation of pot. The Party of Freedom, the Liberals, always carry the banner of the most transparent, least corrupt political force, but they keep stepping on the same rake.
There were Paksas, Zuokas, Masiulis, and the Party of Freedom said that they were really transparent, that they would clean up the state, and that they would make everything transparent and clear.
This scandal has shown that old habits do not die and that parties behave basically in the same way,“ he said.
According to the conservative J.Dautartas, Armonaitė herself will not resign from her position. However, he said, it could be very difficult for the ruling majority to continue working with the Freedom Party.
„They have no choice but to show their political will by opposing certain projects of the TS-LKD, and they will radicalise. This is always the case when a coalition is formed on any principle. You reap what you sow,“ he said.
For his part, S.Malinauskas, summing up the scandal of possible nepotism, stressed that the communication expert A.Belickaitė and the chairwoman of the Freedom Party, A.Armonaitė, had one important thing to do.
„If you see that a crisis is about to start, don't start a fire. Localise it and leave. If she had left immediately, or if Armonaitė had immediately said that she didn't know, she saw a problem, and she had to leave, things would have been different.
Now there is a scandal – the party is burnt, the minister is burnt, and two other people have left“, he said.
However, Malinauskas did not doubt that people would remember this scandal before the elections.
