At the same time, assessing the political future of Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, the LSDP chairwoman who won the municipal elections, the political analyst said that he no longer sees her in active politics – according to him, it is likely that the younger politicians of the Social Democrats will play the main role.
Success factors
Recent opinion polls show that the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania continues to be the country's most popular party.
Political analyst B.Ivanovas attributes the success of the Social Democrats to both the phenomenon of V.Blinkevičiūtė, who is still in office, and to the presence of the Social Democrats in the opposition in the Parliament.
„The phenomenon of V.Blinkevičiūtė exists, it has to be admitted, but it is difficult to explain it rationally because, as a minister, she was in the field of social affairs, which was seen as controversial. It is not clear why she has attracted such a phenomenon,“ the political scientist said on the „Lietuvos rytas“ TV programme „Nauja diena“.
According to him, the fact that the LSDP group in the Seimas works in the opposition has a significant influence on the popularity of the Social Democrats.
„Silence is a good thing, and parties in the opposition don't talk too much – that's how they score the most favour points. In addition, the mistakes of the politicians in the position also contribute, and there have been a lot of mistakes and shots in the foot,“ he said.
It is, therefore, natural, according to the political scientist, that the protest votes fall to those political forces that are the largest and most influential in the opposition.
The future of the leader
Despite the party's successful performance in the municipal elections, B. Ivanov doubts that V.Blinkevičiūtė will return to active politics. The political scientist considered that Blinkevičiūtė would not want to run again in the presidential elections.
According to him, a similar situation could arise as we saw during the majority of the „Peasant“ leader Ramūnas Karbauskis and the ex-Prime Minister Sauliaus Skvernelis.
„I would see Blinkevičiūtė more as the matriarch of the party, who oversees the party without being its frontman. (...) It all boils down to the situation we saw during the period of Karbauskis and Skvernelis when the most important person in the party and the majority is not at the centre, and he works in a committee or in some other way on the sidelines. Everything is left in the hands of the young people,“ predicted the political scientist.
He sees in the story of Skardžius a benefit for the Social Democrats
Ivanovas noted that there have been several „slippery“ stories associated with the Social Democratic Party in recent times. For example, the fact that Klaipėda Mayor Vytautas Grubliauskas had joined the Social Democrats before the elections were viewed quite negatively.
This move was also viewed negatively by the citizens of Klaipėda themselves – Grubliauskas lost the mayoral elections in a landslide.
The story of the joining of the Social Democrats by Arturas Skardžius, a member of the Seimas, and a former Worker, could have also become dangerous for the party's reputation.
On Thursday, Skardžius announced that he had joined the Social Democratic Party and would work in the LSDP group in the Seimas, but in the wake of a wave of indignation, he changed his mind and left the party.
Although some people thought that by admitting Skardžius to the party's ranks, the Social Democrats had damaged their good image in three days, especially after their victory in the mayoral elections in Vilnius district, Ivanovas is convinced that this will not have any long-term impact on the party.
On the contrary, Ivanovas said that he believes that this manoeuvre by Skardžius has been to the Social Democrats' advantage in the end, as it has shown that the party has been renewed and that they are not in the same boat as Skardžius.
„In the end, the right thing was done in that situation, and the negative consequences were minimised.
If he had been accepted and continued to try to work there successfully, then we could say that there is nothing new, that the Social Democratic Party is the same as it was, and that such non-transparent, unclear things can happen there.
Now it is as if it has been shown that things are different and that there will be no return to the old practices. At least at the level of rhetoric we hear this, but it is difficult to say how it really is“, the political scientist assessed.
