A new threat after a few years? Army Chief warns that we must prepare for any scenario

Experts are convinced that if the regime is not completely destroyed, it will rebuild its losses in Ukraine within a few years and will again pursue its goals by force, regardless of whether the attacked country is a member of the NATO alliance or not.

Asked about the risk of direct military aggression by Russia against Lithuania, Lithuanian Armed Forces Commander V.Rupšys said that it is necessary to distinguish between the current threat and the one that may lie ahead.

„If the question is whether they will attack today, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, then I say no. I am saying that next month, three months, and six months into the future, there will certainly be no attack from Russia.

But in the longer term, even in the medium term – 3-5 years – we have to be prepared for any scenario. I think that after the failure (in Ukraine – ed.), and I call it that, (...) Russia will probably try to rebuild its armed forces its combat capability again after some time. So the threat has not gone away, and it may only get worse,“ Rupšys pointed out.

„From our perspective, what we see now is a huge advantage for us, that we know what to prepare for, what Russia's capabilities are, how they can fight, what they can do. Thank God they haven't learned anything since the Japanese war,“ he added.

Military expert, retired Major Darius Antanaitis told lrytas.lt that he believes that the comments of the army chief Rupsis on possible threats to Lithuania are realistic, as they are in line with the logic of Russia and its army.

„The comment of the Lithuanian army commander that the Russian army could be ready for aggressive actions against Lithuania in five years is in line with the development of the Russian army, or the cyclical nature of the war, where every 5-8 years after a war the Russian army would rebuild its combat capabilities and attack another state.

We can see this in Chechnya, in Sakartvel, in Ukraine in 2014 and now, eight years later, again in Ukraine. Also, in Syria.

Russia is currently suffering very heavy losses on the battlefield in Ukraine, but to rebuild its capabilities, for trade with Russia to resume and for Russia to receive not only currency but also foreign semiconductors, the realistic time for production, for the introduction of technology, is around 6-8 years. It would also take the same number of years to rebuild the human losses suffered by the Russian army“, said Mr Antanaitis.

A tank, he said, would take around 2-4 years to produce, while a fighter jet or helicopter would take 5-7 years.

„Western sanctions, if not lifted, will certainly deter Russia from developing advanced weaponry for some time, but it is unlikely that they will stop them from developing weapons of the same technological sophistication as the ones they are using now in Ukraine.

However, sanctions and further surveillance of Russia could delay a possible threat against the Baltic States“, Antanaitis said.

The military expert doubts that a renewed Russian army could be more modern and dangerous than it is now.

„If Western sanctions remain in place and if China does not help Russia, then their technology will not be more modern – it will be at the same level or even lower than what the Russians have now.

But they will have learnt from the war in Ukraine, they will already have that experience, and they will even have servicemen who are now fighting in Ukraine. So experience is even more dangerous than a weapon“, he stressed.

Russian forces are already suffering huge losses in Ukraine. If Russia cannot achieve its objectives in Ukraine, why should it attack any other country?

Mr Antanaitis stressed that the current offensive on Ukraine is neither a victory nor a defeat for the Russian army, as the war is still ongoing and conditions can change at any moment during war.

„From the perspective of what is happening now and what Putin and his entourage have officially said, their goal is more than Ukraine, their goal is the order they imagined in 1997, and the Baltic States do not exist in their minds as independent and free states.

The Russians are also working their way into Crimea with their own blood. So we have our Crimea – we have Königsberg, which is particularly important for the Russians to control the Baltic Sea. Just as Crimea controls the Black Sea, so does Königsberg, or Kaliningrad, which helps the Russians control part of the Baltic Sea. Kaliningrad is therefore strategically important for the Russians“, he pointed out.

Even NATO membership does not guarantee that Russia will not attack a much more powerful alliance than its own to achieve its goals.

„At the moment, we see that Ukraine is not much help either. Although, of course, it is helping with weapons. Still, for the Ukrainians to fully liberate their territory from the Russian occupation forces, other states must join Ukraine as allies.

As for Russia, which has some expectation of making a land route to Kaliningrad for itself – I cannot judge the logic of the Russians, but the problem is not that the Russians might defeat NATO because that is practically impossible. The problem is that the Russians would inevitably cause very serious damage to our country, to Poland, to the other Baltic States“, said the military expert.

Antanaitis is convinced that even the complete destruction of the Russian army in Ukraine would not stop Russia from trying to rebuild it and continue to attack other countries.

„In my personal opinion, even the complete destruction of the Russian army or its land and other forces in Ukraine will not stop Russia from the further reconstruction. The only way to stop Russia's aggressive policies and wars are Russia's lack of integrity as a state or the disappearance of Russia as a state from the political map,“ he believes.

According to political commentator Marius Laurinavičius, as long as the Kremlin regime is not completely destroyed, it will remain a threat to Lithuania – and not only the threat of direct military aggression.

„As long as the regime is not entirely destroyed, it will remain a threat. If we only half-stop it, or if the war ends in some kind of ceasefire and the regime is not destroyed, it will surely, after some time, be the same again – attacking again, killing people again.

There will not necessarily be a war again – the regime has been killing people and engaging in terrorist activities for a long time and everywhere, including on NATO territory“, Laurinavičius told lrytas.lt.

According to the analyst, only a change in the current Russian government, either through an internal coup or an external disruption, would make it possible to prevent this regime from transforming into a new one. Still, a complete change in Russia is only one way to go, he said.

„Replacing Putin alone will not solve anything – we need to dismantle this evil to its roots. The maximum goal is a new Nuremberg process in the broadest sense. Without such a process, with all the de-Nazification that was applied in Germany, it is impossible, I believe, to change Russia.

This is the maximum plan, which even now seems rather difficult to achieve because it requires, first of all, the complete crushing of the regime.

But there are intermediate options, even without Nuremberg. If there is the political will, at least, to dictate to Russia the conditions under which it can return to the ranks of the international community, then perhaps something can be done.

But if there is no political will to completely destroy the regime and then see that it is not reborn, then nothing will happen. Then subversion, terrorism and other hostile activities on the Russian side will never end“, Laurinavičius believes.