Stock Colonel: predictions on the course of the attack are coming true. The Russians may face the fate of Napoleon's army

Foreign Minister Gabriel Landsbergis said on Wednesday that both Poland and the Baltic countries should have a full defence strategy. Vaidotas Malinionis explained what such a strategy means and what we would really need to do to achieve it.

„A total defence strategy is a strategy where the enemy knows that the investment in occupying a territory will never pay off. The loss will be so great that investing in war and trying to occupy another country is simply not worth it, financially or otherwise.

In reality, it would mean a significant increase in capacity. In terms of manpower, troops and technology, and the whole defence architecture would have to be reviewed, not only for Lithuania but also for the whole Baltic region,“ said the retired colonel.

Asked how far we are from the strategy mentioned by Mr Landsbergis, Mr Malinionis said that there are certain areas that Lithuania is lacking, but they can only be achieved through cooperation with other countries in the region.

„One thing that is lacking in the region now is synchronised and well-functioning anti-aircraft and anti-missile defence systems. These things are extremely expensive, and that is why we should think about such a shield on a regional scale. Of course, I am talking about Latvia, Estonia and perhaps Poland, and it should be a comprehensive approach. All the more so because your share becomes a little cheaper when you do a joint project.

In Lithuania, we already have short and medium-range defence systems integrated, there is a well-functioning radar system in the region, where the whole region's airspace can be seen. Still, there is a shortage of long-range defence systems,“ he said.

The Retired Colonel also mentioned the need to consider the performance of the Reserve Forces to achieve a strategy of total defence. According to him, there are currently around 100,000 such troops in Lithuania who have served in compulsory or professional military service.

„There should be some clear concept. I think that Lithuania has a concept nowadays where the operation of manoeuvre units is integrated with territorial units, and a place should be thought of for the operation of reservist troops,“ the officer noted.

Like most experts, Malinionis noted that the Russian offensive is currently stalling. He also agreed with predictions that the Russian military forces may find it even more difficult as spring approaches.

„There are no longer any operational, strategic movements. Instead, the battles are being fought at a very tactical level: over intersections, buildings, and streets. Neither side is making much progress. Because Russian logistics are in a state of serious disarray, the earlier assessments that the Russian offensive might reach a climax are being confirmed. In fact, they may find themselves in a very bad situation.

Some Ukrainian experts estimate that (...), especially in April when the territory will be greener, guerrilla units will be able to operate much more securely behind enemy lines, to get closer and do even more damage. There are even predictions that they may suffer the fate of Napoleon's army when it retreated back from Moscow“, said the retired colonel.

There is a fear in the public sphere that if the plans continue to fail, Putin may decide to use chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons. However, the specialist said that the West has a key role to play in avoiding such a scenario.

„This is a critical moment where the West needs to take a very strong position with a very clearly defined red line that the Putin government would not want to cross under any circumstances. Words like „we are outraged“ or „we warn“ may not be enough. What is needed is not just talk but also some kind of firm stance and a show of strength. The officer said this is a critical stage that will determine how the conflict will develop further“, the officer said.

Asked what could be the expression of Western strength, Malinionis stressed that the first thing to do is get rid of the image we are scared of.

„First of all, what drives Putin's power is the fear of the West. The West is showing that it is very afraid of nuclear war, but we have to remember that Russia is equally afraid of nuclear war, and we all understand that there are no winners in a nuclear war. If it happens, there is no fighting, and everything that both the West and Russia are talking about is meaningless.

That is why the West and the NATO countries should also say that if a weapon of the level that Russia has threatened in the past is used, there should be a clear understanding that the NATO countries will also be ready to intervene in the rescue operations in Ukraine. This ranges from the opening of humanitarian corridors to certain security operations.

The West must stop showing its fear and start showing its resolve about what will happen if it happens as Russia is now saying“, he said.

In recent days, Russian troops have been seen trying to take the strategically important Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Malinionis said that the occupation of such a city would be very important for Russia and morally painful for the fighting Ukrainians.

„If Russia takes Mariupol, they connect the mainland from Crimea to the Donbas, i.e. they create a direct corridor for themselves and cut Ukraine off from an important port on the coast of the Sea of Azov, which obviously complicates Ukraine's further logistics.

If they have this whole stretch taken, they can then generate more forces to attack the northern side towards Kyiv. So this again complicates the prospects for defence for Ukraine and improves the prospects for attack for Russia.

It would also be a kind of moral blow to the Ukrainians. It would be a loss, and, of course, it would not raise the fighting spirit. But, on the contrary, it would be an achievement and a morale boost for the Russian troops“, said the retired colonel.