Tensions in eastern Ukraine: US intelligence reports Moscow's orders to start attacking

2022 m. vasario 22 d. 14:03
Lrytas.lt
According to two US officials and another source familiar with the country's intelligence, the United States has intelligence indicating that orders have been sent to Russian military commanders to launch an offensive in Ukraine.
Daugiau nuotraukų (1)
Intelligence to tactical commanders and intelligence agents is one of several indicators that the US is monitoring to assess whether Russia's preparations for a possible invasion have reached the final stage.
According to CBC News reports, commanders of local units that have received the order are drawing up detailed plans on how they would manoeuvre in their sectors of the battlefield.
However, sources have warned that the orders could permanently be revoked or disinformation aimed at confusing and misleading the US and its allies.
However, the intelligence news came after US President Joe Biden said on Friday that he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin had „made the decision“ to invade.
„As of this moment, I am convinced that he has made a decision. We have reason to believe that,“ Biden said at the White House on Friday. Asked how the US knows this, the President said only this: „We have significant intelligence capabilities“.
The statement reversed the official US rhetoric in the public sphere, which had suggested that Putin had not yet made a final decision in the past weeks.
On Sunday, Mr Biden's comment was echoed by US Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The latter said that Russia's plan was „moving forward“.
„We believe that President Putin has made a decision,“ Blinken said on CNN's State of the Union on Sunday. – But before the tanks roll in and the planes fly in, we will use every opportunity and every minute to see if diplomacy can still deter President Putin from going further,“ he added.
Ukraine: separatists launched an attack on territory under their control to blame Ukraine
On Sunday night, the Ukrainian army said that separatists in the east shelled their territory to „falsely accuse“ Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Joint Forces Command said that the Russian-backed separatists opened „heavy artillery fire in the territory under their control to falsely accuse the Ukrainian armed forces and escalate the situation further“.
It pointed out that the shelling started at 21:00 local (and Lithuanian) time on Sunday and was carried out from the town of Lobachevsky, near Luhansk. Both areas are in the separatist-declared, unrecognised Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) territory in eastern Ukraine.
„While the Ukrainian defenders refrain from any aggressive actions that could provoke a violent response, the occupying forces continue to destroy civilian infrastructure in the temporarily occupied territories and sporadically shell civilian settlements,“ the command said.
„In doing so, the occupying forces have once again demonstrated their cowardice and total disregard for the life and health of the local civilian population.“
For its part, the LLR claimed that Ukrainian forces „fired artillery fire on the territory of the LLR along the entire line of contact and claimed that Ukraine was preparing to attack“.
LLR official Ivan Filiponenko said: „All along the line of contact, the enemy has made preparations for the anticipated attack“.
The separatists have accused Ukraine of preparing for an attack against both separatist republics (Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic), but Ukraine has rejected this accusation.
On Saturday, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said it regretted the spread of disinformation about the military actions of Ukrainian government forces.
More than 1,500 ceasefire violations in Eastern Ukraine
On Saturday, an organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) monitors reported more than 1,500 ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine in one day, the highest number this year.
In a Friday attack report, monitors recorded 591 violations in Donetsk and 975 in neighbouring Luhansk, two regions partly controlled by Russian-backed separatists.
A map marking the violations shows that the most intense fighting is currently taking place in the north-western part of the Luhansk region, about 20 km southeast of the government-controlled city of Severodonetsk.
The eight-year conflict has seen a sharp increase in shelling this week amid fears that Russia is preparing for an invasion of Ukraine to reverse its pro-Western course.
Ukraine's Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky, a group of parliamentarians and foreign journalists in the Donbas, were forced to take cover from mortar fire on Saturday when they arrived at the front line.
Belarus to extend military exercises with Russian forces
Belarus said on Sunday that joint military exercises with Russian forces, which were due to end this weekend, would continue, citing rising tensions in neighbouring Ukraine.
„The presidents of Belarus and Russia have decided to continue the readiness checks of the Allied Powers,“ Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin said in a statement.
The decision was prompted by increased military activity on their common borders and the „escalation“ in eastern Ukraine.
Mr Khrenin noted that further inspections would thoroughly work out the phases of the defence of the Allied state that had not been covered in such detail in the exercises so far.
„In general, their direction will remain unchanged – they are aimed at ensuring an adequate response and de-escalation of military preparedness from the evildoers near our common borders,“ the minister said.
There is no indication of when the exercises are scheduled to end.
On the eve of the exercise, the head of the Belarusian Security Council, Aliaksandr Volfovich, said that despite the end of the joint Belarusian-Russian exercise „Allied Determination 2022“, the readiness inspections of the forces could be extended.
„The exercise is one of the stages of the final stage of the verification. The exercise itself has been carried out. The verification can be continued. When, until when, will be decided by the head of the inspection,“ Volfovic was quoted as saying by the state-run BelTA agency.
The exercises in Belarus, the active part of which began last week, were due to last until 20 February.
The drills involve a large air force and several Russian missile systems.
The manoeuvres are being carried out in several areas of Belarus at once: training ranges near Baranovichi, Asipovichi, Brest, Ashiuzha and Damanova, as well as airfields in Baranovichi, Luninets, Lida and Machulishchi, and several open areas.
The joint exercises in Belarus add to concerns that Russia is planning to escalate the conflict in Ukraine. Russia denies any such plans, while Belarus says that all Russian troops and military equipment will leave the country at the end of the exercise.
Washington has previously said that the Kremlin has sent some 30 000 troops to exercises in Belarus, including along Ukraine's northern border.
Belarus, sandwiched between Russia and European Union member states, has grown closer to Moscow since unprecedented protests in 2020 against the rule of authoritarian President Aliaksandr Lukashenko.
However, Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makey said shortly after the exercises began that „not a single“ Russian soldier would be left in the country at the end of the joint manoeuvres.
The French presidency also reported that Emmanuel Macron had received an assurance from Putin that Russian troops would leave Belarus after the exercise.

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