50 military men for a village
It's going to be more difficult to leave Belarus to live in another country if the Parliament and Lukashenko approve changes to the law "On the order of exit from the Republic of Belarus and entry to the Republic of Belarus of the citizens of Belarus.
In particular, the changes will affect conscripts and men under 27 years of age, who are in the reserve for health reasons and haven't served in the army. They will be able to go to another country for permanent residence only with the consent of the military registration and enlistment office.
It will be more difficult to continue education abroad: it will be necessary to serve in the army first, except for studies financed by the state.
These changes are designed to reduce the number of people who receive a draft exemption and "to increase the number of conscription resources needed to man the troops," said Chief of the MIA Criminal Police Gennady Kazakevich.
So far, the draft amendments appeared back in summer. On October 12th it was passed in the first reading, after which the final approval by the Parliament and Lukashenko's signature are expected. Changes concerning conscripts will come into force immediately after the publication of the adopted document.
This is not the first news in Belarus concerning military service. Back in spring the authorities started talking about creating the military units and territorial defense. Officials explained that their goal was to protect infrastructure and buildings (without specifying from whom or what). Lukashenko also claimed that each village council would have groups of 50 people who would be given weapons. But the regulation of the issue is still being worked out.
In early October, Lukashenko confirmed that the country was involved in the war in Ukraine. Then he announced the creation of a joint grouping of Russian and Belarusian troops and preparations for the deployment of "more than a thousand" Russian troops in the country.
There was no announcement of mobilization. However, in October Lukashenko reminds us that there is a check-up of conscripts and people in the reserve. Without explaining what this is about, the prime minister of defense tells in an interview on October 13 that an anti-terrorist operation is introduced in the country.
How do the inhabitants of Belarus see it?
Mobilization in Belarus is a hotly debated topic. At the same time, opinions about it and the level of concern are very different. Some do not believe that mobilization will happen. Others quite accept it.
The second group of people have very different plans. Someone thinks that it will be possible to serve in the rear or to hide from mobilization in the woods. Some are going to protest and refuse to fight. Some people are preparing to move abroad alone or with their relatives, including already after receiving a summons for military service in the fall.
There are about half as many applications for mobilization as there were during the summer, comments a representative of the BYSOL evacuation hotline. They don't have exact numbers:
"These are mostly applications from Belarusians of conscription age. People of conscription age and especially kids aged 17-19 ask what awaits them and if there will be mobilization. Many inquiries also come from those who have to go to the army during the fall draft and about those who are hiding from the army.
Yes, they believe that there will be mobilization. Whether people are ready to fight - we do not know, because those who are ready do not write to us. But many are still afraid to leave: they don't know where to. Young people also lack skills.
In addition to the scheduled fall draft, there are trips of reserve servicemen to short-term military training camps.
"My nephew is from Belarus, he was recently at a training camp near the Ukrainian border. Trenches, he says, were digging near the river near Gomel. He thought: if they hit them with a missile, they'll bury them in those trenches," said a man on a bus in Vilnius. He added that his nephew recently returned home and is doing well.
Do Belarusians want to fight in Ukraine? According to a recent Chatham House poll conducted in August, 35% do not support war. At the same time, 5% of respondents would like to fight on the side of Russia and 2% would like to fight on the side of Ukraine. Researchers clarify: the results of the poll may be misleading because it took place only among Internet users, as well as how high the level of fear in society is.
Will there be hidden mobilization?
On October 13 Belarusian mass media reported that mobilization was planned but "hidden" - under the guise of examination of combat readiness.
What does the opposition say? At the beginning of October there was no information about hidden or open mobilization, opposition politician and former law enforcement officer Aleksandr Azarov explained. He said: now the Belarusians are being issued mobilization orders, but so far they do not have specific dates - it also does not say anything about mobilization.
"But there is accurate data that there is an adjustment of mobilization plans and measures to improve the mobilization readiness of the armed forces," he says.
Azarov emphasizes: there is no guarantee that people who came to the training camp or on summons will not be called up for mobilization in the near future.
