Myth 1: Disconnecting from BRELL will lead to a blackout in the Baltics.
Facts: Lithuania took 17 years to prepare for the disconnection, and Litgrid already has the necessary infrastructure and management systems in place. The electricity systems of all three Baltic States are ready for synchronisation at any time, should it be needed. The Baltic power plants, the direct current interconnectors with Sweden and Finland, and the storage facilities system will ensure a stable electricity supply. In April 2023, Litgrid completed the isolated operation test and operated Lithuania's electricity system autonomously.
Myth 2: After the closure of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (AEI), Lithuania is dependent on electricity imports and cannot generate electricity.
Facts: With the rapid growth of AEI production, 66% of electricity consumed in the second quarter of 2024 will be produced in Lithuania. There are increasingly more days when local electricity production exceeds consumption. Even in the absence of solar and wind, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have sufficient spare power plants and interconnector capacity to meet electricity demand.
Myth 3: The EU wants to disconnect the Baltic countries from BRELL to sell them expensive electricity.
Facts: Unlike Russia, which constantly engages in energy blackmail, the EU's electricity trade operates in a transparent market where prices are determined by supply, demand and interconnection capacity between countries. The Baltic countries will not trade electricity with Russia from 2022 and Belarus from 2020.
Myth 4: If the Baltic countries disconnect from BRELL, Kaliningrad will lose its electricity, which could lead to additional geopolitical tensions.
Facts: Russia knows the Baltic disconnection and has prepared Kaliningrad's electricity system for years. Kaliningrad has never been a fully integrated part of the BRELL ring. Kaliningrad has enough power plants, and its representatives constantly say they are ready for the Baltic disconnection. Five isolated operation tests were successfully carried out in Kaliningrad in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023, together with the Lithuanian isolated operation test on 14 September 2024.
Myth 5: It is unclear how the Baltic countries will synchronise simultaneously with two different systems: the continental European and Nordic grids.
Facts: Synchronisation will occur through the LitPol Link synchronous link between Lithuania and Poland, which will be extended in 2021. The NordBalt DC link between Lithuania and Sweden has been successfully used since 2016, and the EstLink DC link between Estonia and Finland has been successfully used since 2006.
Myth 6: Synchronisation with continental Europe will increase electricity prices.
Facts: The Baltic countries have not traded electricity with Russia since 2022 and Belarus since 2020, so the disconnection does not affect electricity prices. Price fluctuations both now and after synchronisation are mainly influenced by solar and wind generation, the size of interconnection capacity and the market price of gas.
In July, the Baltic TSOs sent a notice to the Russian and Belarusian TSOs about the non-renewal of the BRELL contract. The contract, which defines the principles for the operation of the Baltic electricity systems in the Russian-controlled IPS/UPS electricity system, will expire in February 2025.
Until now, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Russia, and Belarus operated in the IPS/UPS system, where Russia centrally regulated the electricity frequency. Synchronisation with the Continental European Synchronous Area will ensure independent, stable, and reliable frequency management of the Baltic electricity transmission systems and contribute to the energy security of the whole region.
Synchronisation will increase the integration of European electricity transmission systems and markets and enable the Baltic electricity transmission systems to operate under standard and clear European rules. It will also promote the development of renewable energy in the Baltic States and Poland: newly built and reconstructed power lines, substations and synchronous compensators as a result of synchronisation will increase the ability of the transmission grids to integrate a higher share of renewables in the overall electricity generation.
